ETC CE Report 2025/5 Environmental impact of material's supply chain disruption - The cases of Aluminium and Lithium

18 Mar 2025

Adrien Specker, Shahrzad Manoochehri, Robin Gilli, Giovanni Marin, Roberto Zoboli, Philip Nuss, Elina Pohjalainen, Peder Jensen

This report is a continuation of pilot studies initiated in 2023 to address the European Union's susceptibility to critical raw materials (CRMs) supply chain disruptions and subsequent their environmental implications. The report refines the analytical framework previously developed and proposes a practical tool designed to analyse the complex environmental impacts of specific materials. This tool identifies key variables, considers practical assumptions, and selects alternative supplying countries. It tests the framework's applicability to two materials, aluminium (Al) and lithium (Li). The findings indicate that shifting aluminium supply to domestic EU sources and enhancing recycling capacity can significantly reduce environmental impacts. For lithium, short-term shifts to alternative suppliers are complex, medium- and long-term measures, including increased recycling and expanded refining capacity within the EU, could prevent significant annual CO2 emissions. The report underscores the critical role of supply chain decisions, investment in recycling technologies, and domestic production in mitigating environmental impacts.