ETC CE Report 2024/7 Nowcasting and outlooks of EEA circular economy indicators

25 Jun 2024

Philip Nuss, Renato Marra Campanale, Maarten Christis, Yoko Dams, Giovanni Marin, Massimiliano Mazzanti, Marianna Gilli

The European Environment Agency (EEA) closely monitors Europe's circular economy through a variety of indicators such as, e.g., the material footprint, EEA consumption footprint, and waste indicators. These metrics face challenges due to delayed statistics and a lack of regular outlooks. To address this, a two-part report has been developed that explores (1) methodological approaches to nowcast a total of six EEA indicators to the most recent year and (2) outlooks up to 2035. The report assesses data and methods for in-house implementation, considering their scientific robustness and ease of implementation. Nowcasting methods vary, using techniques like annual relative changes and regression models, while outlooks rely on statistical methodologies and historical data for medium-term projections. This report strengthens the EEA's ability to anticipate circular economy trends, contributing to sustainable resource management in Europe.